Sunday, February 24, 2013

Global Warming-- The Problem with no Solution?

Firstly, I'm not convinced global warming is an issue. Man-made or not, the evidence seems rather inconclusive that the various impacts of raising Earth's temperature by a few degrees in a hundred years will have a net-negative effect on humanity. Certainly some things would be negative, like rising sea levels and heat strokes, but other things would be positive, such as newly-inhabitable land north of Canada and increased crop yield.

That said, if it *were* a problem, is there any conceivable "solution"-- government or otherwise?

Global warming, in theory, is an economist's absolute nightmare. It's the public good problem on a massive scale-- where absolutely no one has an incentive to change their behavior, and together they burn to death.

Liberals and interventionists are quick to point to the government as an answer, but this is rather unconvincing. Creating a government that solves global warming requires a citizenry that votes the "right" politicians in and the "wrong" ones out. Since the impact of one vote to aid this process means virtually nothing, we are faced with another public good problem-- no one cares to learn what solves global warming, nor which bureaucrats plan to enact that solution.

I inquired with economist David Friedman on the issue-- who believes governments would be a hindrance to solving global warming-- and proposed an option in the following exchange:

"Undoubtedly much cheaper" [than fossil fuel reduction]

One thing David doesn't touch on in his brief analysis is whether or not geo-engineering could solve the problem in a society where government was too limited to have a say in the matter, though I'm not sure I or he knows enough about the details to make that argument convincingly.

To reiterate, I don't believe the evidence suggests that global warming will have even a net-negative effect on humanity-- much less that it will cause us all to burn and die. Humans have lived through many kinds of temperatures throughout the history of their race, and we don't have reason to assume that the present climate is exactly optimum for society.

However, should new evidence come to suggest otherwise, I'm not sure human nature is apt to stop it.

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